Sat., Dec. 31, 2016 – MARKET & ECONOMY CHECKUP

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 31, 2016

MARKET & ECONOMY CHECKUP

2016’s Performance

The year 2016 came and went faster than seemingly any other.  2016 started off with a nasty sell off, the worst start ever for the beginning of any year for the stock market.  The sell off lasted through January 20th, and retested the lows about a month later, around February 11th.  The year then went on to rally strongly, finishing up by double-digits (but with some hiccups along the way), despite unusually low GDP growth.  Most of the gain coming from roughly November 4th to the present (and the peak of roughly June of 2015 was not exceeded until roughly November 15, 2016, with a big interim drop-0ff in between). 

2016 Performance

As you can see it was a great year for equities and fixed income alike!  I’ve always said (for equities) I like the S&PMidCap400 (matched by tickers IJH and MDY) best because it has companies with market capitalizations of $2 to $14 billion dollars, which have significantly more consistent EPS growth, and also higher EPS growth rates than their large capitalization counterparts (in e.g. the S&P500, where the market caps are from $14 billion to $622 billion [AAPL’s current market cap]).  Higher and more consistent growth of earnings is what makes stocks appreciate faster.  In other words, it is more difficult for enormous large-cap companies to grow at the rates of mid-caps.  In 2016, the S&PMidCap400 returned +18.73%, while the S&P500 (aka the S&PLargeCap500), matched by ticker SPY) returned +9.54%.  That’s a huge difference!!!  I’d expect that mid-caps will continue to outperform large-caps over the long run (over most, if not all 1, 3, 5, 7, 10, 15, and 20, etc. year periods).  Additionally, there just isn’t much hyped up baloney galore components in the S&PMidCap400 when compared to the S&P500. 

It should be noted also that the S&P500 has a heavy weighting on the hyped up tech sector (with nose bleed PE Multiples), while the S&PMidCap400 does not; and this led to a total outperformance of mid-caps through the recession and market mess of 2000 through 2002 (see the diagram below).  Here we are in 2017 now, and the Nasdaq-100 has just very recently exceeded the value it first reached in March of the year 2000 (yes, it has really been nearly 17 years!).  Obviously, if you adjust the Nasdaq Composite’s old all time high of March 10, 2000 of 5,134 (and the Nasdaq-100’s peak in March of 2000) for inflation and for currency depreciation, then it’s still not anywhere near where it was nearly seventeen years ago!  I like to say tech is a four letter word and I seriously hope I never buy another hyped up tech stock again.  In 2016 the Nasdaq-100 (matched by ticker QQQ) returned +5.89%.

6-10-1999 through 12-21-2003.  Notice the Nasdaq100’s Wreck (NDX) vs. the S&PMidCap400’s (MID) strength.

01-01-2007 through 01-01-2011.  Here’s how the U.S. indices faired through the more recent recession.

Additionally, I’ve always said (for fixed income) that I like the J.P. Morgan Emerging Market Bond Index best (the JPM EMBI), matched by ticker EMB, which had a total return of +9.41% in 2016.  I’ve always said that if the JPM EMBI is good enough for the Harvard Endowment Fund it’s good enough for me and you!  I strongly believe that all fixed income should be replaced with ticker EMB (and/or ticker PCY, a very similar index). 

In the sector of High Yield U.S. Corporate fixed income (matched by ticker HYG) returned in 2016 an outstanding +13.91% (similar ETFs include JNK, SJNK, and SHYG which returned +12.29% in 2016).

REITs retuned +4.57% in 2016 as measured by the Cohen & Steers Realty Majors Index (matched by ticker ICF). 

Personally, I like the Hospital and Long Term Care Facility REITs best; See ticker OLD (by Janus) and its components (the fund began trading in June 8, 2016).  Prison REITs (tickers GEO and CXW) also have great yields.

Mortgage Asset Backed REITs (see ticker REM and its components) have also done very well and is +21.95% in 2016.  Many of the components of REM have great dividend yields [click here for quotes on ETF ticker REM’s and its components].

Some of my favorite REIT tickers would include:  HCN, HCP, OHI, NHI, SBRA, CCP, VTR, MPW, DOC, SNH, GEO, CXW, GOV, and DEA [click here for quotes on these tickers].

2016

January’s sell off was blamed (in retrospect) on worries on China’s actual (or legitimate) growth rate, the strong dollar (and weak foreign currencies), and whether or not a recession would materialize (since the current economic boom is and was “long in the tooth”) in the USA and elsewhere.  Additionally, early 2016 saw light sweet crude oil fall into the $20s per barrel, which made everyone nervous about possible looming bankruptcies in the energy sector, which did not materialize (despite the energy sector’s  very very light weighting in the U.S. broad based indices).  People apparently think the USA is similar to Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Brazil.  The USA’s economy is a little bit more diversified than those energy-centric nations.  The snap-back in oil prices (closing out 2016 at $53.89 per barrel) led to a strong recovery in the energy sector, and in the economies and stock indices in Brazil [see ticker EWZ, +63.86% in 2016, and ticker EWZS +64.78% in 2016] and Russia [see ticker RSX, +47.10% in 2016, and ticker RSXJ +103.50% in 2016].  For U.S. energy sector exposure, checkout tickers XLE and PSCE.  And as Janet Yellen has said- Economic booms don’t die of old age.  Perhaps we’re going to see the longest economic boom in the history of the United States (which isn’t really saying much because the USA is only 240 years old!). 

So, 2016 had a mini-panic  and sharp sell off in January, lasting through about February 11th.  The broad based stock indices then rallied until roughly the BrExit Referendum of June 23rd.  Shockingly, the U.K. voted to leave the Euro Union (sparking or pointing out a seemingly worldwide sense of nationalism and protectionism), setting off a sharp and quick global sell off, lasting just two days until roughly June 27th.  The markets then rallied back sharply, and then traded sideways until roughly November 4th, when the markets began a very rapid ascent!  The majority of the return in equities (since roughly December of 2014 through March of 2015) has materialized from roughly November 4th to the present!!!  In other words, the DJIA reached 18,000 in December of 2014, and it was there again in November of 2016, before kissing 18k good bye.  And no one said the markets would rally on a Trump victory!  The consensus was wrong again.  Today, DJIA 20k (and higher) seems within reach.

I believe the markets have rallied so strongly since the Trump victory because of hopes of repealing Obamacare (aka the Affordable Care Act, which everyone knows isn’t at all in the slightest way affordable, and even Bill Clinton calls it “the craziest thing in the world”).  They’re hoping for change regarding banking regulations (which turned our nation’s best financial institutions into “zombie banks” since 2008);  The people (whether or not they know it) want Dodd-Frank and the Durban Amendment and the Volcker Rule repealed and trashed.  They also want tax reform, and a repatriation of foreign earned income currently kept abroad by our nation’s largest companies because of horrendous tax rates in the USA.  If these reforms can really take place, then the markets could really rally some more!  If in the first 100 days of the Trump Administration, if none of these reforms materialize, then the markets could be in for a major reality check, and could easily come back down (especially financials which have rallied very strongly since November 4th, see tickers XLF, KBE, and KRE).

Luckily, there doesn’t seem to be any bubbles really anywhere currently, except in some foreign markets, in the value of Bitcoin (ticker GBTC… a “crypto-currency;” Likely not worth even the value of Parker Bros. Monopoly money), and select healthcare (predominately in some Biotech, which has now been selling off since roughly 7-20-2015), and select tech (e.g. the PE Multiples of the following tickers: NFLX 334.65, FB 55.00, AMZN 171.79, GOOGL 29.00 – Foolishness and rip off comes to mind with these valuations!).  Who would buy any stock with a PE Multiple in excess of 300?!  Worse still, who would buy the stock of a company with zero (or negative) earnings, like Tesla (ticker TSLA), which loses more and more money with each and every vehicle sold?!  Bitcoin is total nonsense, and investors would likely be much better off investing in trash, literally!  Checkout tickers WM, WCN, RSG, and CVA, which are what I call “The Four Kings of Trash.”  I’ve heard talking heads on CNBC trying to rationalize Bitcoin, saying it is a medium of exchange for e.g. the people of Venezuela and other corrupt locales on Earth.  I would disagree, as they can barter with something of actual value, or they can use the Euro, the British Pound Sterling, or the U.S. Dollar, etc.  An actual piece of currency or money, includes a store of value, a medium of exchange, and a unit of account, backed by the full faith and credit of a central bank and its people (not electronic nonsense!).  Bitcoin is pure foolishness and nonsense.  I would estimate that the Bitcoin bubble will burst in 2017, see ticker GBTC;  Bitcoin is the epitome of Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds, and I believe it is a rage and a mania that will end in (tears and in) a panic crash.  I’m surprised The Greater Fool Theory has kept its value up this high and for this long.

As you can see above, the current PE Multiples are as follows:  DJIA 21.56, DJ Transports 16.37, DJ Utilities 27.93, Russell2000 nil [reported as 21.73 at the iShares website for ticker IWM], Nasdaq100 24.22, and the S&P500 24.82.

As reported at iShares the S&PMidCap400 has a PE Multiple of 23.18 (see the iShares website for ticker IJH).

I would encourage all of you to visit the Powershares website, iShares website, and SPDR websites for all kinds of great info on your favorite ETFs.

I believe that 2017 (if not into early to mid 2018, at least) will see the economy grow modestly (at around 2.3% to 2.8% GDP growth), slightly stronger than 2016 worldwide, with no materialization of any recession in the USA.  I would estimate that inflation will remain below the historical average of +3.88% for many more years, which should help to keep interest rates lower for longer (but I expect interest rates to increase all along the yield curve for all credit qualities, especially in the higher credits).  I would estimate that King Dollar will continue to strengthen.  And I would estimate that real estate in the USA will continue to appreciate at roughly the historical norms.  I also would estimate that light sweet crude oil will continue to appreciate, perhaps to $75 per barrel over the next 18 to 24 months (it did peak at roughly $145 per barrel in 2008; This bodes well for Russia, Brazil, Venezuela, and the Middle East).  Of course there could be mini-panics (similar to January and February of 2016) about China’s growth rate, King Dollar’s strength, weakness in Asia & the emerging markets, earnings (and GDP) growth at home and abroad, the ramifications of Trump’s tax reforms and other policies, and other political risks, and of course fear of a looming recession.  There could also be a looming banking crisis in Europe, centered in Italy, where there are too many non-performing loans for their financial sector to absorb.  Investors can get spooked easily.  Losses from the stock market in a panic could have a negative-wealth-effect which could hypothetically make people spend less, and when they do, companies will earn less, leading to layoffs (higher unemployment), and ultimately to a recession.  The best thing to do, is to (try to) buy on the dips, and not panic.  The U.S. economy is resilient, and most bounce-backs begin 18 to 24 months off of all time highs (when bear markets [at depths of -25 to -35 percent off stock market peaks] and after recessions have materialized).  The most bullish anyone should ever be, I believe, is when the front page of the Wall Street Journal says something like “It’s Official there’s a Recession in the USA.”  Many in the past have said that we should all strive to “buy when there’s blood in the streets,” meaning buy on the dips.  To me, this means that investors should rotate out of fixed income and into equities once a recession has wreaked havoc on the markets for 18 to 24 months, in the magnitude of -25% to -35% off the all time highs (or they can buy on margin, or they can buy e.g. deep in the money call options on the S&P500 using expirations three years away).  The idea is to increase risk and market exposure at the depths of the madness of recessions.

I believe that 2017 will see a rebound in the healthcare sector’s equities. See tickers XLV, IHE (IHI and IHF), XPH, IBB, GNRX, SBIO, and CNCR (some of these are significantly more risky than others, so swim at your own risk!).  It’s time, I believe, for a rebound in healthcare stocks, as many of them have been in decline now for 18 to 24 months.  If I hand picked two I’d say take a look at Allergan PLC and Glaxo Smith Kline PLC, tickers AGN and GSK.  After all, Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren (and the entire democrat party) will not be condemning the healthcare sector any more, as the election is over!  And I have the feeling that if there is a widespread overhaul of the healthcare system, if and when the republicans repeal the Affordable Care Act, I believe that the healthcare sector will emerge from the changes stronger than ever!  The congress may act hysterical and upset about the healthcare sector and its profits, with its executive pay of its CEOs, and with the cost of drugs at the pharmacy, but in the end, I don’t really see them changing much (due to “bureaucratic resistance”), and there will not be price controls in the USA.

I will leave you with the ten DJIA stocks with the highest yields, otherwise known as “the Dogs of the Dow,” (which has historically outperformed the DJIA for many years).  Ticker & Yield: VZ 4.34%, PFE 3.94%, CVX 3.67%, BA 3.65%, CSCO 3.44%, IBM 3.37%, KO 3.37%, XOM 3.32%, CAT 3.32%, and MRK 3.20%.  Additionally, the “Puppy Dogs of the Dow,” (also referred to as “the Small Dogs of the Dow”) has also consistently outperformed the “Dogs of the Dow,” and includes the five lowest price stocks out of the ten “Dogs of the Dow,” being MRK, KO, CSCO, PFE, and VZ.  For more information on the “Dogs of the Dow” and on “the Puppy Dogs of the Dow” visit DogsOfTheDow.com [click here].

The following resources can assist you in judging the strength of the economy and the direction it’s moving in (click the blue text to go to the link)…

1. The Economic Indicators,
2. JPM Asset Management’s “The Guide to The Markets”,
3. Minutes of the FOMC,
4. The U.S. Treasury’s “Debt to the Penny”,
5. Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now,
6. Kiplinger’s Economic Outlooks, 
7. FRED’s Corporate Profits Before Tax,
8. FRED’s  TED Spread, and
9. FRED’s Capacity Utilization.

UPDATE:  As of 1-9-2017 the SPDR Family of ETF Funds has finally released their official 2016 performance figures; So I’ve made a table of those figures below.  I have also included the sector allocation of these tickers in the S&P500 (matched by ETF ticker SPY).

Happy Trading,

Andrew G. Bernhardt

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Monday, Nov. 21, 2016 – Market Checkup

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 21, 2016

SECURITIES MARKET CHECKUP

Indices closed at all time highs today!  I believe the rally will continue heading into the new year.  Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now is heating up [click here].

Well, it appears as though Trump has won, and the markets apparently like that!!! 

I would guess that Hillary lost the election due to the extreme views of the likes of Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, who seem to be and talk nasty to business, to consumers, and the healthcare sector.  Voters probably didn’t like the democrats idea to “put up” only one candidate (as Sanders was really a joke the whole time, and is and was a socialist).  Hillary likely lost also due to low voter turnout of the black voter demographic (which came out heavily for Obama in the past, at record levels which may not be reached for many elections to come), Hillary couldn’t make up for it with higher turnout among the hispanic voter demographic.  The FBI investigation and reinvestigation into her emails was also troubling to voters.  Lastly, there was fierce competition among the democrats with two third party candidates, such as Johnson and Stein who likely “stole” votes away from the democrats. 

For all these reasons, this is why the democrats lost the election… or should I say this is how and why the democrats won the election.  After all, the democrats won the popular vote nationwide, and somehow have lost the general election (thanks to the ridiculous electoral college).  The congress will likely never admit it much, or correct the problem, because they’re a little to dignified and exalted to admit to any idiocy or wrongdoing.  This is the second election in 15 or 16 years, where the winner lost, and the loser won.  Bush Jr. vs. Gore comes to mind.  Hillary vs. The Donald is the second of just five elections where the popular vote loser wins!  I suppose the electoral college, is a “loser takes all” system, which assists the republicans.  It’s a rigged system, as Donald Trump would say.  Regardless, it appears as though Trump won.  We shall see what the electorate does when it casts the electoral college votes soon.

There was also a total sweep of the congress (and of many governorships nationwide) where republicans won.  This was not expected.  The democrats were even thinking they’d sweep the Congress (and Governorships), they were Trumped!

The general election polls were well within the margin of error the whole entire time. The liberal media really couldn’t ever admit that, which is why so many believed Hillary would win.  The general public was brainwashed by the extremely liberal media (of the likes of Anderson Cooper, Rachel Maddow, Don Lemon, and Ellen DeGeneres, etc.).

I would also guess that people do not want “more of the same,” they want change.  They want to drain the swamp.  They don’t like the Affordable Care Act (aka “Obamacare”) which is way too expensive (everyone dislikes it!).  They don’t want higher taxes.  They don’t like Dodd-Frank and the Durban Amendment. They don’t like loose drug law enforcement (aka “legalization” of weed, which is illegal according to federal law, serves no medical purpose, as it’s a schedule one drug, which can not be prescribed by any medical doctor or filled by any pharmacist, at any pharmacy, and federal law supersedes state and municipal city ordinances – which means weed is illegal!).  People are worried about the loose immigration policies of the last 8 to 10 years, and they’re worried about the changing face of their nation (every nation feels that way).  Nationalism is back.  Perhaps, they’re worried about opening the borders to the people of Syria and Central and South America, who are relatively speaking less educated and unskilled, and as Trump would say obsessed with drugs and crime.  Many could be upset by the gay marriage movement, which likely will confuse two and three year olds, who will now be taught in school they can marry their best friend of the same sex (many likely were perhaps pro gay rights, but wanted their marriage variant deemed a “civil union,” rather than “marriage”). Besides, hasn’t the gay rights movement come a little too far too fast?  Doesn’t the U.S. Supreme Court have anything better to think about?!

People are excited about change, and a roll back of nasty regulations which have crippled the financial sector of the USA, and they’re excited about tax cuts across the board, and about tax repatriation of foreign earnings from abroad (which could be spent on share buy-backs or dividend hikes, which really could bolster and support the stock market!!!).  People are excited about the positive impacts of the wealth effect.  Lastly, they’re excited about Trump’s infrastructure and defense spending ideas.  Perhaps Trump will manage to run deficits in excess of a trillion dollars per year, just like Obama did for a couple years?

Here’s how many index ETFs and sector ETFs have done since November 8th (election night).

The Amazing Rally Nearly Across the Board

 

The markets have been surprisingly strong, which many said wouldn’t happen if Trump won.  They were wrong.  In the immediate aftermath of Trump winning Pennsylvania and Florida Futures vs. Fair Value were indicating a drop of over -800 points on the DJIA.  Luckily, cooler heads prevailed, and the stock markets actually rallied post election.

In the meantime, I believe the markets will continue to rally into and through inauguration day, and perhaps until roughly a week past Valentine’s day due to seasonal strength.  The Santa Claus Rally is here (so far… knock on wood), and hopefully The January Effect will materialize.  Hopefully, the markets will find further strength from increases in consumer spending, holiday and travel expenditures, seasonally strong 4th quarter EPS of the components of the indices, the fact that Congress is (or will be soon) out of session, abatement of tax loss selling, and 401k and IRA contributions, etc.

Lastly, I will leave you with this… Keep an eye on Monsanto (ticker MON) and Bayer, AG (ticker BAYRY).  Hopefully, the deal (their proposed merger) will be approved, and MON shareholders will receive $128 per share.  Shares today of MON closed at $101.32.

Happy Trading,

Andrew G. Bernhardt

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Friday, Nov. 4, 2016, Deep Thoughts & Market Checkup

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 2016

5:15pmCT

DEEP THOUGHTS & MARKET CHECKUP

Here are some of my thoughts on the markets…

1. Rates are going to increase, all across the yield curve, and especially with higher credit quality issues, including Triple-A-Rated Treasuries (yields are still a total rip off here).  People will be shocked at how much they can lose on e.g. 30 Year Treasury Bonds if rates were to increase by 100 basis points (which would likely produce a return of -15.00%).  Real fixed income investors will invest in the JPM EMBI (matched by ETF ticker EMB and/or its very similar cousin PCY), which is basically BB rated, high yield, sovereigns, weighted at about 10 to 11 year maturities.
2. Healthcare to me looks oversold, and in my view for political risk reasons, which have been completely overdone.  Elizabeth Warren and/or Bernie Sanders will not be shutting down the healthcare sector, and they will not be setting price controls on anything related to healthcare, nor will they control anyone’s salary in the healthcare sector anytime soon.  Checkout tickers XLV, XPH, IHE, IHI, IHF, IBB, XBI, SBIO, GNRX, CNCR, etc. (all of these are -8.00% to -37.00 off their 52 week highs).  All healthcare, pharmaceutical, and biotech stocks have been absolutely wrecked.  I think there will be a rebound of some kind staged over the next six to twelve months as politicians will not be shutting down our nation’s healthcare sector or its pharmaceutical companies. (click here for quotes on all these healthcare and biotech ETFs)
3. The S&P500 (matched by ETF ticker SPY) has been down now about nine (9) days in a row… This is extremely rare! (see this article).  I believe this is because of the political risk associated with the U.S. presidential elections.  I think that Hillary will win, and The Donald will lose, but I do think it will be (and has been) very very close.  I think if Hillary loses both Ohio and Florida, it’s going to be very very close as to who wins. 
4. If Trump wins, all bets are off, and expect the markets to sell off sharply on November 9th! Maybe -1,000 will register on the DJIA if Trump wins?!  I don’t think anyone (except Trump) wants to see new taxes, tariffs, import quotas, and “the great wall of china” to be built between the USA and Mexico (or any hasty and nasty immigration policies).  And who the hell wants NAFTA to be renegotiated as Trump insists?!  Free trade is the best thing that ever happened to the USA.  There are gains from trade, positive externalities, an increase in standards of living, and general advancement when there is free trade.  Protectionism is a bad idea!  We don’t want the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act – Part II – anytime soon!
5. Financials are, in my view, very very undervalued and could be the sector winner over the next ten years, easily.  I base this judgment on the fact that many stocks in the sector are selling for well under book value!  This is ridiculous!  Checkout tickers XLF, KBE, KRE  (and all their components).  REITS may do very very well over the long run also for patient long term investors, see tickers ICF and REM and OLD.  REM is mortgage asset backed REITS many of which have MONSTER YIELDS!!! Ticker OLD is laden with components involving REITs which manage hospitals and elderly long term care facilities, all of which pay great dividends. I believe hospital REITs are fantastic long term holdings. [click here for quotes on all these financials]
6. The U.S. economy is growing at over 2.9% according to the last GPD report, the employment reports have been good to great, and super low inflation rates (and low interest rates).  Housing markets are doing fairly well, but could be dropping slightly due to the weather and seasonal patterns (real estate is usually hottest from April to September).  What more could anyone really want?!  Growth rates could actually accelerate from here.  There is not going to be a recession anytime soon, unless Trump wins.  If Trump wins, the stock market could really sell off, causing a nasty negative reaction to the wealth effect (from the people’s stock market losses), which would wreck consumer spending.  This would directly cause a recession, since the consumer is the biggest part of GDP (and GDP growth).  If no one spends, no one earns money, the velocity of money grinds to a halt, and income and GDP fall and contract, leading to an increase in interest rates, which could dry up the credit markets. If credit drys up, people are borrowing less, and consequently spending less (“credit makes the world go round.”)
7. Here are some links you can use to judge the health of the economy…  The Economic Indicators, Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now (which forecasts +3.10% going forward), Kiplinger’s Forecasts, Minutes of the FOMC (and the FOMC’s Implementation Note), and JPM Asset Management’s “Guide to the Markets.”  I believe the economy and corporate profits (earnings and revenue growth) are much stronger than many would like to admit.

My best advice would be to not let the U.S. elections scare you or your investment goals. There is so much negativity out there already, that it must be priced in by now. Besides, Corporate Profits Before Tax are increasing.

If you are really worried about a Trump victory, then do a married put on e.g. SPY; or initiate a diagonal collar (by selling calls expiring e.g. 6 trading days after the election (using the 16th as an expiration), and buy puts (with the proceeds of the call sale) expiring 3 days after the election (using the 11th as an expiration on e.g. SPY)). 

Alternatively, investors could e.g. sell SPY short, and buy calls for protection (additionally, they could sell out of the money puts to help pay for those calls).

Lets look on the bright side, if Trump wins, perhaps there will be a repeal and re-do of “ObamaCare” aka the Affordable Care Act, which even Bill Clinton calls “the craziest thing in the world.”  Everyone knows its totally unaffordable!

[Click here for www.RealClearPolitics.com’s latest poll figures].

Happy Trading!,

Andrew G. Bernhardt

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